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Archive for the ‘Steve Paul-Ambrose’ Category


When do results matter?

Thursday, February 4th, 2010

spasmallleft1.jpgby Steve Paul-Ambrose
One of the first things you learn playing poker is to avoid being results oriented. This is a pretty hard lesson for most; after losing a bunch of flips, shoving into aces or busting on the bubble it's hard not to second guess yourself and let the results affect you even if you know the play was right. The results of a hand are often a terrible way to decide if you made good decisions during the hand. On the other hand, your results over thousands of tournaments are generally a good indicator of how well you played during that time span, but let's stick to individual hands. Basically I want to look at when you can use the results to judge your play and when you can't.

Let's start with an obvious one: it folds to the small blind who goes all in for 10 big blinds. You are the big blind, look down at AKs and call. Unfortunately the small blind has AA and you lose. Hopefully no one looks at that hand and says: "I shouldn't have called there, next time I have AKs in that situation I'll fold!" Now a slightly more difficult one, same scenario but you have KTo. This is much more opponent specific, there are lots of people you should call against and some you should fold against. But you've only been at the table a few orbits so you don't have much of a read. Let's assume you call and take a look at three scenarios:

1. SB has AK
2. SB has QJs
3. SB has 72o

In the first scenario, these results are essentially meaningless. Yes it was a "bad" call against his specific hand, but it's quite possible that he was shoving any two cards. AK is any two cards so when he looked at that, he shoved. If you had seen this player in this spot a number of times and he folded a lot but when he shoved and got called he had a big hand, that's useful information. Him showing AK this time is not.

spabig1.jpg

The second situation is similar except in this case we made a "good" call based on his hand. But his shoving QJs doesn't really indicate anything about whether our call is good or not.

The third situation is the one where the results clearly indicate that our call is good. If he's shoving 72o there we can reasonably assume he's shoving any two cards in which case we're about a 60/40 favorite against his range and calling is clearly the right play.
How can you use this to improve your play? Instead of analyzing your play based on the hand you were up against one time, try to use the results to create a range of hands for your opponent and do your analysis based on that.

Sometimes the results will not really be helpful (the AK and QJs examples), sometimes they will do the job for you (72o). In general though they will provide at least some insight and give you a better chance to make an accurate analysis and allow you to make better decisions next time a similar situation arises.


Knowing ‘why’, by Steve Paul-Ambrose

Wednesday, December 16th, 2009

spasmallleft.jpgby Steve Paul-Ambrose

Often when playing poker you'll instinctively know that a given raise, call or fold is right and make it. That's an important skill, but often not knowing why can get you in trouble. A good example of this: in the ante stage of a tournament, it folds to you on the button. You look down at 72o and you make a raise. Now your reasoning for this raise is likely "the blinds are tight, I can win the blinds and antes most of the time" and you'd often be right to an extent. But it's still instructive to look at why you can raise any two cards, and particularly how that impacts your decisions when your raise doesn't win the blinds.

Generally in this spot between the antes and the blinds the pot will be 2.5x the big blind, and your raise size will be about the same. So for a raise to show an immediate profit, it has to work 50% of the time. Looking at it individually, if your opponents each play 30% of their hands, your raise will work .7*.7=49% of the time. So if you think they're looser than that, your raise is likely not best. So now your reasoning for the raise might look more like: "I think the blinds are tight and will each only play 20% of their hands. My raise will work more than 50% of the time, so I will raise." Great. The problem for most people comes when their opponents call (we'll ignore when they reraise because I think we can all agree that you should just fold your 72o when that happens).

spabigg.jpg

For most people when their raise gets called and their opponent checks, they put out a continuation bet. They showed strength preflop and the only way to win is to bet right? I'd say that's wrong for two reasons. First, your opponent, not you, is the one who showed real strength preflop, by calling he's narrowed his range from a random hand to a hand in the top 20%. You on the other hand raised with 72o so raising isn't exactly showing that you have a stronger than random hand. Secondly, we've determined that the preflop raise shows a profit. It's a lot harder to demonstrate that a continuation bet will, particularly when we know that our opponent has a stronger than normal hand. So in other words, betting is the only way we can lose by turning our profitable preflop raise into a potentially unprofitable situation by continuing to try to win the pot when our opponent has shown strength.

Now that's not to say you should never continuation bet after raising 72o there. Just before you do, you should understand why, and why you raised preflop in the first place.


2009 WCOOP: Steve-Paul Ambrose opens his playbook

Monday, August 17th, 2009

steve-thumb.jpgWith just 16 days to go until the start of the biggest online tournament series in the world, the anticipation is near its peak. Bankrolls are being assembled, schedules created, and family members sent to the hinterlands until October. We are please to report Team PokerStars Pro Steve Paul-Ambrose is ready for action and opening his playbook such that we mere mortals can see how he went from humble university student to Team Pro. Below are a few tips from the man known as stevejpa.

by Steve Paul-Ambrose

The WSOP has come and gone and now that I'm over another year of missed chances at a gold bracelet there, I'm ready and excited at the prospect of winning one in WCOOP. Each of the three years I've played I've had numerous cashes and semi-deep runs, but I've yet to break through and final table or win one. With ever growing fields, it takes a fair bit of luck to make a run like that, but here are a few things to remember along the way.

1. Stay aggressive. In order to get deep in these big field tournaments, you need to accumulate a lot of chips. That means not being afraid to put chips in the pot, or get all the money in when you have an edge.

2. Stay patient. WCOOP events have phenomenal structures, so while you need to be willing to gamble and accumulate chips, there's no need to force things if the right situations don't present themselves. No online tournaments, and few live ones, have structures as good as those you'll see during WCOOP, so use that to your advantage.

3. Don't get discouraged. It's always tough to play your A-game throughout a tournament series. Busting a few huge tournaments a day takes a big toll on you mentally. As much as possible try to ignore your results and just take it one tournament at a time. Also, a day off now and then never hurt anyone.

4. Play your best. Going along with the above, you'll play so many hands over the two and a half week, 44 event schedule that it's easy to get caught up in what has happened and stop focusing on what is happening. Just focus on making the best decisions you can and hope the results go your way.

There's nothing new in the above advice, but when you get caught up in the excitement of a big series like WCOOP, it's easy to forget. I know I play my best when I'm focused and having fun, so here's hoping I, and everyone reading this, can stay positive through WCOOP and play my best. Oh, and maybe win a bracelet or two.

Steve Paul-Ambrose is a member of Team PokerStars Pro

Steve Paul PCA 2009.jpg


Finding mistakes using math, by Steve Paul-Ambrose

Saturday, June 20th, 2009

wsop2009_thn.gifThe hand: Day two of the WSOP $1,500 NL and there are 270 left. We're in the money, average is around 45,000 and I have 11,100 after losing a flip on the bubble the night before.

Dustin Dirksen opens under the gun to 3,000 at 600-1,200 (100), I'm the cut-off with A-10 offsuit. I shove. Now against a tight under-the-gun raiser this is an easy fold even with nine big blinds. But I felt like Dustin would raise a pretty wide range here so I put it in.

spa2.jpgSteve Paul-Ambrose

Results: He calls with J-J and I bust. Now it's easy to say one of two things: 1) He had J-J, bad shove, 2) He's probably raising a lot of hands worse than A-T, good shove. But there's more to it than that.

The math: I'm putting in 11,100 to win 13,800 (11,100 from Dustin and 2,700 from blinds and antes) so I need to win almost 45% of the time ignoring the times someone behind me has a hand. I think we can safely assume Dustin is never folding pre-flop since he'll be getting 2:1 to call my shove.

Using Pokerstove (a really handy program which is free to download) I get that he has to be raising at least any pair, most suited aces, A-T and up, suited broadways and some smaller suited connectors just for my shove to break even. And while it's possible he's opening that wide (or a little wider), I haven't even dealt with the three players still to act.

Conclusion: Probably a small mistake to move in there, especially since I think I play a short stack better than most and there's some small value to surviving, despite my short stack.

Most importantly, though, doing math like this away from the table will give you a much better understanding of short-stacked play and make you a better overall tournament player.


Strategy: Steve Paul-Ambrose takes you deep in Sunday Million

Tuesday, March 3rd, 2009

Earlier today, we showed you how the top players won the biggest tournaments online (and if you missed it, be sure to go back and check out the 3-1-09 Online Poker Show). Now, here's some advice from Team PokerStars Pro Steve Paul-Ambrose on how to make it happen for yourself.

By Steve Paul-Ambrose

There's an undeniable appeal to the prospect of turning $200 into $200,000, and in the poker world the quickest way to do that is to win the Pokerstars Sunday Million.

Unfortunately, it's not quite that easy. The tournament draws over 7,000 players every
week. In this article, I'm going to look at a few strategies and adjustments to make when playing large field tournaments, particularly one like the Sunday Million. I'll start out with a few general observations, and then move on to strategic adjustments during each phase of the tournament.

One of the most important things to remember going in is this: no matter how well you play, you cannot win (or even go deep) a 7,000 person tournament without getting lucky. That may sound somewhat discouraging, but realizing it is important both to playing well and to staying sane during your rough patches. Secondly, too many people look to pass on edges and survive their way forward in the tournament. But when there are 7,000 other players, you need to be accumulating chips, not just surviving. There are a couple exceptions to the following which I'll touch on later, but first and foremost your goal in the tournament needs to be to maximize the number of chips you make every hand (remember that very often folding and winning 0 chips is better than any other options for the hand.) A final minor point is that the structure of the tournament has little bearing on your general strategy. Structure determines if and when you get to the different stages of a tournament, but it should very rarely dictate how you play a hand.

Early Stage Play

Early stage play in the Sunday Million has three important characteristics: deep stacks, no antes and nine handed tables. In most cases, it is largely correct to assume you're playing a cash game as tournament payout implications are smallest at this point. The one exception is at a very weak table, you may want to try to avoid playing for all your chips with a small edge, but I feel most people lose more looking for spots like this than they gain correctly identifying them. Remember, accumulating chips is your number one goal. If you bust early making a correct play, that's a perfectly good result for the tournament.

Because of the lack of antes and full tables, generally correct play tends to be fairly straightforward tight aggressive play, loosening up in position. A side benefit of playing in this way is you are likely to be viewed as tight and players may be slow to adjust when the antes come in and you start to ramp up the aggression. You should also be looking to develop reads and looking to play pots with the weaker players, particularly in position. Most of the value during this stage comes from exploiting people who are playing too loose and in such a large field there are generally lots of these types of players. Unfortunately, often these players won't last long, so you need to put yourself in as good a position as possible to be the one that gets their chips, before someone else does.

Mid Stage Play

During this phase, antes come into play and stacks begin to get shorter. Antes promote more aggressive play, as pots are now bigger and there is a larger incentive to steal the blinds. Also, as stacks get shorter, preflop play becomes begins to dominate. As a result, you should get more aggressive, particularly with preflop raises and reraises. Reads continue to be important, especially knowing who is too weak from the blinds, who is capable of reraising or four-betting without a big hand, etc. While describing strategic adjustments in all table conditions is far beyond the scope of this article, I will offer some advice. First, the focus begins to shift from exploiting the looser players to exploiting those playing too tight. Though loose (more specifically loose/passive) players will likely still be targets, their play is made less incorrect by the larger antes. Also, picking out and reraising more often the players who are adjusting to the antes and opening more pots becomes imperative to a winning strategy. Most importantly, remember that there is no one "best" strategy during this, or any, stage of a tournament. Different players and tables require different approaches so be willing to adapt.

As the bubble approaches, your play should likely change, although moreso to adapt to others than because of the money bubble. While you should be less willing to call off your chips preflop, remember that the first payout level tends to be between one and two buyins, whereas first is somewhere in the area of 1000 buyins. Again the key is adjusting to your table, attacking those who care too much about making the money, and picking good spots against other "attackers."

Once the bubble bursts there's often a long stage where stacks are quite short relative to the blinds and play is almost entirely preflop. Correct play becomes largely a math problem, and one in which your instincts will prove to be wrong more often than not. The best advice I can give here is to do your own work away from the table. There are lots of tools available, but most of it can be done with Excel, or with a great free program called Pokerstove. Working out correct ranges to move in or folding preflop will drastically increase your edge in almost all tournaments, particularly ones with quicker structures like the PokerStars Sunday Million.

Late Stage Play

As the final table begins to approach, the most important change is that you will often be playing at less than full tables. Again this will require an increase in aggression, and since you'll be playing more pots with more marginal hands, reads become even more important. Being able to adjust to those who are looking to make the final table as opposed to those looking to win is essential. Ideally you should be able to look at each person (or avatar) at the table and have a good idea of where your edge against that player will come from, whether it's by playing tight and value betting them, attacking their blinds more than normal, reraising more than normal or in the case of a great player just avoiding them. In reality it never quite works out this well and we operate with incomplete information, but recognizing that this is the goal will help keep you focused.

Most importantly, recognize that making the final table in and of itself is meaningless. Your goal should be to maximize the money you expect to make, so don't be afraid to make a play you believe is correct. Remember that there is a huge luck element deep in tournaments and try to play your best. Having gotten 10th in the Sunday Million, as well as bubbling a couple WPT and WSOP events (and countless online tournaments), I know it sucks to make it that deep and bust, but most of the money is in the top three spots, so don't let yourself blind out just trying to make the final table.

Most of what I've written in this article can be summed up in a few key points:

  1. Preflop play is extremely important in tournaments. Do work off the table to be prepared for this.
  2. Reads are extremely important in all stages of a tournament, but especially deep and around the bubbles.
  3. Winning a tournament takes a huge amount of luck, so try to ignore results while playing your best and having fun.

Team PokerStars Pros cash in, miss final table

Wednesday, February 25th, 2009

When battling against more than 600 of the world's top poker players, even making it into the money of the L.A. Poker Classic is an accomplishment, It's safe to say, however, that three members of Team PokerStars Pro are a little more than disappointed this morning.

Andre Akkari, ElkY, and Steve Paul-Ambrose all made it into the money of the LAPC and were looking to make the final table. Alas, when play ended last night, the Team PokerStars Pro crew had nothing to do but count their winnings.

Paul-Ambrose finished in 47th place and picked up $27,395. ElkY managed to make it to 32nd place for a $38,085 finish.

Akkari had entered the day with an above-average stack. Of the three remaining Team PokerStars Pros in the field, Akkari was the only one who had not yet won a WPT event. He managed to get closer than the rest of the team at the LAPC, but ended up going out in 29th place for $38,085.

Congratulations to all three on their finishes.


Akkari, ElkY, and Paul-Ambrose in the money at LAPC

Tuesday, February 24th, 2009

Which one of these things is not like the other?

Andre Akkari.

Betrand "ElkY" Grospellier.

Steve Paul-Ambrose.

Sure, you can probably come up with a good argument for any answer here, but for the purposes of this discussion, the answer is "Andre Akkari."

Why?

Well, out of the three remaining Team PokerStars Pros left in the World Poker Tour L.A. Poker Classic, two of them have WPT titles and one does not. That, of course, is Andre Akkari. Steve Paul-Ambrose won his WPT title at the PCA in 2006. ElkY won his WPT title last year at the Festa al Lago event.

Now, Akkari is looking to make a run for a title of his own.

Going into Day 4 of the LAPC, Akkari has an above-average stack. Sixty-three players remain in the event, all of whom are in the money. Paul-Ambrose and ElkY both are below average, but at this stage, they could turn their stacks into final table appearances by day's end.

Good luck to all three players in Day 4.


WCOOP Event 24: stevejpa has found a new game

Thursday, September 18th, 2008

by Steve Paul-Ambrose

The No Limit 2-7 drew one of the smallest field of WCOOP so far (as well as the first overlay) and not surprisingly one of the toughest. The field was full of recognizable names, some with 2-7 experience, some without. I recognized nearly everyone at my starting table, though we quickly found out that most of us had never played a hand of the game.

That said, I can safely say that I'll be looking to play a lot more NL 2-7 in the future. It's a fast paced game that encourages a lot of aggression and bluffing, both pre and post draw. My tournament never quite got off the ground. I hovered between 5000 and 7000 before finally hitting a little rush and getting to 17000. Unfortunately, I immediately lost several pots and ended up busting when I drew to 2345 after moving in predraw and came up with a straight.

Other Team Pokerstars Pros Bill Chen and Gavin Griffin narrowly missed the final table. Heads up came down to luvgamble and Mike "Sirwatts" Watson, recent WPT Bellagio Cup winner and fellow graduate of the University of Waterloo. The match was back and forth, with luvgamble eventually winning $42,000 and the WCOOP bracelet after nearly 13 hours of play.

Congrats to luvgamble, Mike, and all other final table participants!

Steve Paul-Ambrose is a member of Team PokerStars Pro


WCOOP: Steve Paul-Ambrose rowdy for tournament series

Sunday, August 31st, 2008

By Steve Paul-Ambrose

WCOOP is coming and I'm already getting excited. I've had a month now to forget about the disappointment of the WSOP and now have another to get ready for this year's new and improved version of WCOOP, featuring a few new games and several higher buyin tournaments. The addition of the 10k NL and 25k Heads-Up should definitely make for some very tough fields and interesting final tables. And with the current size of the Pokerstars Sunday tournaments, I'm sure we'll see plenty of record-breaking fields in the smaller buy-in events.

As for myself, despite having my share of cashes the last 2 years of WCOOP, final tables, and more importantly bracelets, have eluded me. But I have high hopes for this year. I've really started to put some effort into learning the other games; playing more PLO and starting to do some stud and split games studying. Despite being a bit of a novice in the non-holdem games last year, I was able to make a couple deep runs in the relatively smaller fields and look forward to a shot at a final table this time around. I missed this year's chance at a WSOP bracelet, but a WCOOP bracelet would be a pretty nice consolation prize.

Good luck to everyone at the tables, and hopefully I'll see some of you at a WCOOP final table!

The PokerStars World Championship of Online Poker begins this Friday, September 5 at PokerStars.com. Steve Paul-Ambrose is a member of Team PokerStars Pro.